Talal, party of one

Prince Talal has recently been bumped from the Royal family's "Family Council" in favor of Prince Salman , the current governor of Riyadh. The reasons given for his removal are sketchy... "that he's always abroad anyway", and that "his ideas do not suit Saudi arabia". In response, the eve- liberal "Red Prince" is now trying to form a political party with a reform-minded agenda.

Two points of note:

1. This latest development is key step in moving Salman yet another step closer to the throne.

The dynamics of the family council are interesting enough in themselves to merit a post in itself, but the family council is a rather shadowy deal for people not directly involved in its business. Suffice to say that the 18 members of the family council is the final word on inter-saud disputes, division of power amongst the families, and most importantly: succession. It was the family council's decision to finally depose of king Saud when he proved inept to the point of near-disaster in the early 60s.

And as the Saud family grows ever larger and larger, and as we approach he time when it is no longer apparent who of the remaining older brothers will succeed, the importance of the family council grows more and more. The most likely candidates are: Prince Naif, long time minister of Interior (i. internal security), Prince Salman, and fast rising among the ranks Prince Muqrin recently appointed head of national intelligence. This jockeying for position, as well as the princes' respective healths will continue to play an increasing role in the future of Saudi's succession.


2. Talal's "party" is doomed... unfortunately. I don't doubt the sincerity of his will, but the notion of another prince heading up a political party of reform is laughable. Y He's already alienated himself from the family (let's not forget the Free Princes fiasco) where one could argue that he was in the position to make the most change. And I'd be hard-pressed to think of a single political prisoner who'd answer Talal's almost pathetic invitation to join his party.

It's too bad. Because if it's one thing the Saudi liberal movement (if it can be called a movement) needs, it's organization. Over the last few years, I have been continually surprised by the NUMBER of secular saudis. But all are either silent, opting to keep their heads down and avoid trouble; or else working alone or within small pockets, fighting their battles separately. The lack the organizational mobilization that made the Sahw'a movement so powerful in the 80s. The prince indeed has the time and the money to give an over-arching structure to the liberal effort. The catch-22 of the matter remains hat his wealth and status are what delegitimizes him in the eyes of his political peers.